Santander in Bid to Take Over Polish Bank

February 18th, 2011

Spain’s top lender Santander moved to gain full control of Polish target Bank Zachodni WBK yesterday, offering to buy minority investors out for a 4.5 per cent premium, which values the bank at $5.7 billion.

Santander beat European rivals seeking a slice of Polish growth with a deal in September to buy 70.4 per cent of the country’s fifth largest bank by assets from AIB, part of a €2.9 billion transaction.

It is still awaiting Polish regulatory approval.

Santander has been expected to make a bid for the remaining shares in BZ WBK as buyers are required to do so by Polish law when their stake in a company surpasses 66 per cent.

The outstanding questions were when Santander would comply with this rule and what price it would offer BZ WBK’s investors.

Santander answered both when it said it would offer 226.89 zlotys per share in a tender scheduled to take place between February 24th and March 25th. That values the remaining shares in BZ WBK at around $1.7 billion.

“The price is in line with expectations, but investors are happy that there are now dates for the tender,” Michal Sobolewski, an analyst at IDM SA brokerage in Warsaw, said.

In a statement, AIB said: “Once the tender offer is open for acceptance and all conditions to the sale agreement have been satisfied, AIB will tender its 51,413,790 shares in BZWBK representing 70.36 per cent in the share capital of BZWBK.

“There is no change to the sales proceeds or capital effect expected and announced by AIB on September 10th, 2010.”

Story from Irish Times


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Top Investment Chief Favours Spanish Bonds

February 18th, 2011

Spanish bonds offer “a good investment opportunity” because the country will probably survive the region’s debt crisis, said Andreas Utermann, chief investment officer at the RCM unit of Allianz Global Investors.

“We think Ocean Wave Properties.com”>Spain will indeed be the domino that will actually stand,” Utermann, who helps oversee about $146 billion, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “On the Move” with Francine Lacqua. “The premiums that you’re getting on Spanish debt at the moment and on some of the equity are probably a good investment opportunity. We continue to be cautious on Portugal, Greece and Ireland.”

European leaders meet today in Brussels to find a way out of the debt crisis that is threatening to engulf Portugal and Spain after Ireland and Greece were forced to seek aid. Utermann said he favors shorter-dated debt to longer maturities such as 10-year bonds, which he said are “dangerous and overvalued.”

The Federal Reserve and the Bank of England embarked on so- called quantitative easing programs in which they purchased bonds with new money to spur the economy. The European Central Bank began buying government debt in May to stabilise markets roiled by the crisis. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said yesterday the bank’s bond-buying program is “ongoing.”

“Bond markets at the longer maturities are dangerous and overvalued, manipulated,” he said. “That’s what the central banks with QE are trying to do.”

The euro region’s sovereign-debt crisis erupted in 2009 after Greece’s newly elected Socialist government said the budget deficit was twice as big as the previous leadership had disclosed. The extra yield investors demand to hold the bonds of Spain, Portugal, Greece and Ireland instead of benchmark German bunds climbed to records in the past year.

Spanish debt returned 2.2 percent this year, with Greek bonds rising 6.2 percent, according to indexes compiled by Bloomberg and the European Federation of Financial Analysts Societies. German securities fell 1.7 percent, while U.S. Treasuries declined 0.8 percent, the indexes show.

Story from Bloomberg


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Zapatero Keeps Voters Guessing Over 2012 Elections

February 18th, 2011

Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero is keeping Spanish voters guessing on whether he will stand again in elections next year.

“We must dedicate ourselves throughout 2011 to talking not about the Socialist Party, but about Spain,” Zapatero said recently.

“We mustn’t talk about the future of the party, but the future of Spain,” he told fellow Socialists.

At a recent political convention, Spain’s governing Socialists seemed to present a united front, confident of victory in approaching elections and sure of Zapatero’s role as party leader.

“I’m proud of [Zapatero.] I’m proud of his values. I’m proud of his courage. I don’t know a better Socialist,” senior Socialist Jose Blanco said.

Popularity has taken a hit

But the Socialists have been lagging behind the opposition in the polls for months. And with nationwide local elections looming in May, the party could be heading for a heavy defeat.

Speculation over whether Zapatero will run again and when he will announce his decision is intense. The possibility he will not be a candidate is gaining ground in the media. Zapatero himself has said only two people know his plans – his wife and a colleague.

But the mystery surrounding the prime minister’s plans has threatened to dominate Spanish politics, with signs of disunity becoming apparent in the Socialist ranks.

Economy a key concern

One senior party figure recently warned that if Zapatero does not make his intentions clear soon, the upcoming local elections will be a vote on the prime minister’s popularity. And that, according to the opposition, could be bad news for the economy.

“This is bad for the credibility and calm that Spain’s political situation should convey in order to generate economic confidence,” said Maria Dolores de Cospedal of the opposition Popular Party.

And it’s the economy that has been the government’s main bugbear. Ocean Wave Properties.com”>Spain is struggling to emerge from recession and unemployment is the highest in Europe at 20 percent. Many blame Zapatero for the depth of the crisis.

“Right now he is tremendously unpopular,” said Jose Juan Toharia of polling firm Metroscopia.

“Not only among voters of the Conservative party, but particularly among his own voters. He has disappointed so many sections of Socialist voters that, at this point, he is totally discredited,” Toharia explained.

If Zapatero does stand aside, the favorite to replace him is his interior minister and deputy prime minister, Alfredo Perez Rubalcaba. At 59, Rubalcaba is a decade older than Zapatero and a throwback to the Socialist government of the 1980s and 1990s, of which he was a member. He is also Zapatero’s most popular minister.

An outside bet is Carme Chacon, a young politician who is Spain’s first-ever female defense minister.

But despite the unpopularity of the government, it’s not all doom and gloom in the Socialist camp. Zapatero surprised many recently by reaching a pact with labor unions that includes raising the retirement age from 65 to 67. This could help the government in the polls, according to Toharia.

“Most likely in the months ahead the Socialists will recover somehow, especially if Zapatero is not finally the running candidate.”

Story from Deutsche Welle


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Spain in Appeal to Bring Back British Buyers

February 18th, 2011

The Spanish government has launched a direct appeal to Britons to help kick-start Spain’s faltering economy by buying some of the country’s 700,000 unsold houses.

Beatriz Corredor, the Spanish housing secretary, promised new planning laws to end the confusion which has led to some British home owners being ordered to knock down their properties deemed to have been illegally built.

“Come here calmly, and trust in the system that we have and the transparency we provide,” she said.

“There is a very attractive offer on the table here, with prices significantly lower than two years ago, and you will certainly find what you are looking for.”

Her plea reflects growing alarm in Spain at the huge stock of newly built homes waiting to be sold – of which 400,000 are near the coast – since the country’s economic crisis began. Prices have tumbled by up to 40 per cent and banks and construction firms are desperate to recoup some of their investment.

In recent years, Britons have bought one third of all Spanish properties sold to foreigners. But many have recently been put off by horror stories of planning permission being retrospectively revoked and other complications, and the number of British buyers has slumped.

According to government figures, 100,000 homes built around the coast during the last decade face unresolved planning problems, and residents say the true number is even higher.

“The British are our highest priority and are those about whom we are most concerned,” Mrs Corredor told The Sunday Telegraph. “It is true that there has been… an image problem. Now we want to reassure the British, and all foreigners, that we are doing everything possible to put the details clearly on the table.”

As part of a package of legal reforms to be steered through the Spanish parliament this month, for any property being sold the local council will be obliged to provide a document stating clearly its boundaries, the category of land on which it stands, its access to services including water and electricity, and details of its planning approval.

If someone buys a house with all the correct paperwork, Mrs Corredor said, they could be assured of its legality. “If there is not any mention of legal proceedings on the document, the person who buys the property through the correct channels will then know there is judicial support.”

An estimated one million properties are currently on the market across Spain, including homes that have already been lived in by at least one owner.

The Spanish government’s hope is that a return of British buyers will give a boost to the ailing economy by injecting much-needed liquidity into the banks, creating work for those involved in fitting out homes and helping to draw a line under free-falling property prices.

Over the next few weeks the Spanish government will also embark on a “roadshow” around Britain and other northern European countries to promote the Ocean Wave Properties.com”>Spanish property market. House prices have fallen on average by 24 per cent in the Malaga area and by 19 per cent in Tenerife, Mrs Corredor said. “They are very attractive reductions, especially in properties of high quality. They are properties that are worth the trouble.”

John Heyes would agree. From his Ocean Wave Properties.com/property_guide/55625-costa-del-sol-property-guide”>beachfront apartment on the Costa del Sol near Estepona, which he bought just over a month ago for €161,000 (£136,000), a full €100,000 cheaper than its original price, Mr Heyes, 66, urged others to seize the moment.

“There are hundreds of thousands of properties around, all at seriously discounted prices. Do your research and take your time, but it is a great opportunity.”

Nick Stuart, a British estate agent who runs the website Spanish Hot Properties, said: “There are huge bargains to be had there, such as Ocean Wave Properties.com/property_guide/31673-marbella-property-guide”>villas in Marbella that are almost at half their previous prices.

“Get a decent independent lawyer and make sure that the property rights and bank guarantees are in place. Ninety five per cent of these horror stories could have been avoided.”

But others are not so sure. And in the golf resort of Villamartin, near Alicante in south-eastern Spain, the scale of the problem facing Mrs Corredor becomes clear.

There are 120,000 empty new homes in the wider region, and in Villamartin rows of whitewashed houses sit empty, waiting for an owner. Signs hung over the balconies offer cheap sales for properties repossessed by the banks.

Sun-bleached billboards along main roads, advertising in English and Russian, offer dream holiday homes, but the empty streets, with just the occasional car with British number plates, tell a different story.

Robin Barton, 65, has lived in Villamartin for 10 years, and sitting outside The Stray Sod Irish bar, he said it would take more than a slick marketing campaign and technical changes in the law to bring back the British and end falling prices.

“The simple fact is that the Spaniards built too many homes,” he said. “There is just not the demand for all of these houses, and with the rest of the EU in crisis too, nothing the Spanish government does is going to make people buy them.”

He pointed to the shell of a half-built block of flats, its exterior walls complete but the building uncompleted inside. “That’s been there for years. And no one will finish it. It just proves the lack of planning that caused all this mess.”

Gabi Baischer, managing director of In Sun Properties in Villamartin, has not sold a single property to Britons in the last month. Flicking through her records, trying to recall the last time that British clients came to buy homes rather than sell, she said there were now only Scandinavians and Russians.

She drove around the winding roads of Villamartin, circling the golf course and past the Irish pub, pointing out the most heavily discounted properties. Everything is being sold at a vast reduction. On Thursday she sold a two-bedroom whitewashed townhouse for €107,500 (£90,700) — less than half the initial price.

A British family is selling their Ocean Wave Properties.com/browse/spain-villa-for-sale-pag1pgr2ppp20slt0srt4swp1″>villa with a swimming pool, originally bought for €320,000, for €260,000. A third property, a pretty three bedroom semi-detached villa with views down to the coast, is on the market for €205,000 — €120,000 less than its original asking price. It too is being sold by Britons.

“Over 90 per cent of our business three years ago was British people buying,” she said, “and now, it’s maybe two per cent. It has totally dried up.”

Meanwhile those who have become ensnared in complex legal disputes of the kind that have been a bugbear to foreign buyers – with some cases ending up in the European Court – warn that not even Mrs Corredor’s change to the law will solve the problem for new buyers.

“The government in Madrid can give all the assurances it wants, but without it enforcing the laws nothing will ever change,” said Charles Svoboda, whose Ocean Wave Properties.com/property_guide/46-valencia-property-guide”>Valencia home has been the subject of legal wrangling for the past eight years. His support group for property owners taking court action currently has 30,000 members in Valencia alone.

“The problem is that housing is often dealt with at a regional level, and national rulings make no difference whatsoever. And in small towns, there is often no one who is technically competent to enforce these laws.

“I wish the government all the luck in the world with these new proposals, and am sure they are well intentioned. But here it is like Alice in Wonderland. The housing rules may look the same, but actually everything is totally backwards.”

Maura Hillen, 46, bought a home with her husband John near the town of Albox, 130 miles south of Alicante, only to discover too late that it had not been legally approved. She is sceptical about the impact of the new law, which in any case will not apply retrospectively to cases like hers.

“I look out of my kitchen window and still see houses being built where they shouldn’t be,” she said. “And for people like us, who bought our place three years ago and are trapped in legal limbo, you feel as if the four walls are closing in on you.

“We are being hounded by a machine that will not move, that will not blink. The legal situation for housing is just crazy.”

They have formed a residents’ association which has 700 members, and this weekend are meeting 36 other organisations in Andalucia to campaign for their rights to be respected.

They say that Britons considering a move to Spain should still be very cautious.

“Many places have the veneer of legality, but these laws from Madrid are never enforced on a local level,” Mrs Hillen said. “Their intentions are correct, and I do think their efforts are in the right direction.

“But at the moment I would honestly say that British buyers should go somewhere else.”

Story from Telegraph


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Spanish Banks Display Risky Appetite for Property

February 18th, 2011

They are officially banks but they have become Ocean Wave Properties.com/agent_directory/estate-agents-spain-property-for-sale-pag1ppp20slt0srt6″>Spain’s main real estate agents, according to data from the country’s banking sector which reveals the extent of their risky property assets.

The Bank of Spain had asked all 17 of the country’s fragile regional savings banks, which account for about half of all lenders, to supply it with details of their exposure to the collapsed real estate market.

Unsurprisingly, the savings banks held far more risky assets than the main banks, based on a calculation of the figures last week by AFP.

The nation’s seven main banks held 45 billion euros ($61 billion) in risky assets and the 15 of the savings banks that have so far published their figures had around double that, or 90 billion euros.

The difference is due to the huge amount of mortgage loans — some 164.9 billion euros worth — that the savings banks handed out during the property bubble, whereas the main banks only issued some 77.5 billion euros.

The savings banks are at the heart of market fears that Spain could need a bailout like the ones granted Ireland and Greece last year.

If the savings banks are unable to cope with losses from their exposure to the property sector, investors fear they will need massive government help.

But analysts noted that the total declared amount of risky assets, 135 billion euros, is much less than the Bank of Spain’s estimate at the end of June, which put figure at at 180.6 billion euros.

“The numbers that emerged were generally below those of market estimates,” said Juan Jose Fernandez-Figari, an analyst with Spanish brokerage firm Link Securities.

“The numbers that the market could cope with, in the worst case scenario, were much higher than what we’re hearing about” now, said Jose Luis Martinez Campuzano, a strategist at Citi. And “the market response is very positive.”

Since the first figures began appearing earlier this year, the Madrid stock exchange has gained almost 10 percent.

Of the 90 billion euros in risky property assets held by the savings banks, 29.4 billion euros are non-performing loans, or those that may not be repaid, and 27.5 billion euros of “sub-standard” loans at risk of default. The bad loan rate even reached as high as 45% at the Cajasur BBK savings bank.

The savings banks also have 33.1 billion euros of real estate assets from seizures, the value of which approximate because they have depreciated since the bubble burst on the Ocean Wave Properties.com”>Spain’s property market in 2008.

The largest savings bank group, Banco Financiero y de Ahorros — the product of a merger of seven banks — has thus become “the largest Spanish real estate agency and the top private owner of land,” the leading daily El Pais said last week.

Now “the key is to know how much these assets are really worth,” said Fernandez-Figari, as the sector has depreciated by about 30 percent and made provisions to cover potential losses.

“It will probably increase the provisions,” said Martinez, because property will continue to lose value in a country where homes for some 80 million people were built when the total population is just 47 million.

“If the weakness in sales seen in 2010 continues (in 2011), new provisions will be necessary,” Spain’s third largest bank, Banco Popular, acknowledged Friday.

The key is fiscal transparency so “that the markets have a more accurate picture of actual exposure to the real estate sector,” said Fernandez-Figari.

Martinez agreed that “fundamental thing is to find capital”, as the government has called on the banking sector to come up with 20 billion euros by September.

Story from AFP


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Santander’s Plan Revital promo with discounts up to 58pc – interesting opportunity in Menorca

February 18th, 2011

Altamira – Santander’s real estate arm – are offering 200 homes with discounts of between 50pc and 58pc. One development in Menorca is particularly interesting.

The development in question is called Sa Caleta, on the edge of Ciutadella, Menorca’s second biggest city, in the north west of the island.

Spacious semi-detached homes of 237m2 with 4-beds, private terraces, communal gardens and pool, etc., from 260,000€.

I’ve been watching this development for more than a year. It started off too expensive, but now I think it’s a good prices.

A couple of minutes walk from a pretty cove and small beach, I bet you could get a reasonable rental yield at this price.

Menorca is a gem, largely unspoiled by the building boom. If you are interested in property there, you might want to have a look at this.

Added to which 100pc financing and 40-year mortgage terms (in some cases).

I wish I could say that Santander Altamira were paying me for this, sadly not.

Check it out

Developers call change in trend and expect glut to shrink this year

February 18th, 2011

On the back of official figures showing housing sales up last year, Spain’s Association of Developers and Constructors (APCE) forecast the housing glut will shrink this year for the first time since the crisis began.

“A change in the trend” is how José Manuel Galindo, President of the APCE (pictured above), describes the latest sales figures showing the market grew by 6.8pc last year, and by 5.1pc if you exclude social housing.

Galindo told the Spanish press that the official figures do not count repossessions or debt-for-property swaps as sales, meaning that last year’s increase was a genuine increase in home sales, driven by a recovery in demand. I remain sceptical about this but will give him the benefit of the doubt.

As a result of rising home sales and plunging new housing starts, the APCE forecasts that Spain’s legendary housing glut will start to shrink from this year on. “More flats are now being sold then built,” Galindo told the Spanish press.

Galindo also forecasts that official figures will continue growing for at least the first couple of months this year thanks to a surge in transactions at the end of last year before mortgage tax credits were eliminated. Sales take a couple of months to get counted in the official figures. After that, however, the official figures are likely to go down.

Residential construction completions down 34.5pc in year to November

February 15th, 2011

Bigger falls are on the way as the pipeline of housing starts runs dry

The number of new homes being finished continues falling, with 237,479 homes completed over 11 months to the end of November 2010, down 34.5pc compared to the same period in 2009, according to the latest figures from the Government (Fomento).

With housing starts down to under 100,000 per year in 2010, from a high of over 800,000 in 2007, it’s a safe bet that construction completions will continue falling for at least the next year or so to below 100,000 p.a. in 2012.

That’s bad news for the construction industry but at least it will help clear the glut of new homes weighing down on the market.

98pc of homes finished in the latest period were built by private developers, whilst 2pc were social housing built by the government.

House prices down 5pc over 12 months according to Tinsa index

February 15th, 2011

The Tinsa house price index shows house prices continuing their steady decline.

House prices in Spain were 5pc lower in January than the same time last year, according to the Tinsa index – one of the most watched in Spain.

Average national prices are now down 19.6pc since the peak.

As illustrated in the table above, coastal areas where foreigners tend to buy have done significantly worse than the national average, with prices down 8.4pc in 12 months, or 27.2pc since the peak.

The Balearics and The Canaries, on the other hand, did better than average, with prices down just 3.4pc over 12 months and 17.5pc since the peak.

Full report from Tinsa

Asking prices kick off year with declines in January

February 15th, 2011

In keeping with last year’s trend, vendors continue reducing their expectations on a monthly basis, though not in all areas.

Asking prices fell between 0.3pc and 0.6pc month-to-month according to idealista.com and fotocasa.es, two of Spain’s leading property portals.

Idealista say resale asking prices fell 0.6pc to 2,258 €/m2 between December and January, whilst Fotocasa, in conjunction with IESE business school, say prices fell 0.3pc to 2,255 €/m2.

According to Fotocasa, an average home (flat) of 80m2 would now cost 180,400€, down 4.7pc in a year and 23.6pc since the April 2007 peak when prices hit 2,952€/m2.

On the bright side prices fell in fewer areas last month, with prices stable or rising in 7 of Spain’s autonomous regions.

Idealista say average asking prices rose month-to-monthh in 7 regions led by Murcia with 1.8pc, followed by The Canaries (+1.2pc) and Galicia (+1pc). Prices fell the most in Cantabria (-1.5pc), Extremadura (-1.2pc) and Asutrias (-1pc).